Congressman Ed Markey leads Cohasset businessman Gabriel Gomez by 8 points (46/38) in a new WBUR poll conducted by The MassINC Polling Group. Both Markey (43/25) and Gomez (37/16) are viewed more favorably than unfavorably, but more than a quarter of voters (27 percent for Markey and 32 percent for Gomez) are undecided in their opinion of the candidates.

In analyzing the results for WGBH, we got to thinking about our previous polling on transportation and what it reveals about bikers and biking here in Massachusetts.

Bikers are drivers, too: Rather than talking about bikers and drivers as two separate tribes of road users, it’s better to think of biking and driving as two different modes of travel used by many of the same people. Our September 2012 poll found that 91 percent of those who had ridden a bike to work or shopping in the past month had also driven a car for those reasons. The figure was lower in February 2013 (70 percent), but so was the total number who had biked in the previous month – a very snowy January. Nonetheless, a solid majority of even these hardier cyclists are also driving to work or shopping at least part of the time.

In both polls, those who biked were also more likely than the general population to use other modes of travel: trains, subways, buses, ferries and walking. Overall, it appears that bikers are using more aspects of the transportation network than the general population.

In keeping with this overlap with other modes, bikers are not all that dissimilar demographically than our respondents overall. Looking at the demographic data from September 2012 poll (which contained the larger sample of bikers), we see that bikers track pretty closely with the general population, with perhaps a slightly higher income and educational profile.

Partisan split: One appreciable difference we found was that bikers are more likely to be registered Democrats. Forty-one percent of bikers in our September 2012 poll and 50 percent of the hardier winter bikers from our February 2013 poll were Democrats, compared to 36 percent of respondents overall in both polls. This finding may help explain the partisan divide we found in the WGBH poll. While solid majorities from each party thought both drivers and bikers were equally to blame for accidents, more Democrats (26 percent) blamed drivers alone, while more Republicans (21 percent) pointed the finger at cyclists.

When it came to remedying the problem, a majority (51 percent) of Democrats favored installing more bike lanes. Among Republicans, the most popular solution was better enforcement existing traffic laws (42 percent). These preferences mirror the ideologies of the two parties, with Democrats favoring infrastructure solutions and Republicans adopting a law-and-order stance.

Bike lanes are favored, but not as much as other improvements: The WGBH poll found that 45 percent of residents think bike lanes are the best solution to resolving conflicts between bikes and cars. But our previous polling shows that other infrastructure improvements are viewed as even higher priorities – even be those who bike.

The chart below shows the percentage of respondents to our February 2013 poll who said that the making the listed improvements in their area would make “a major difference” in the lives of their friends and neighbors. Improving and/or adding new bike lanes is the third most popular option among cyclists (65 percent), but the least popular among all respondents (36 percent).

Across the board, bikers are more supportive of all manner of improvements – roads, bridges, transit and bike lanes – than the overall population. This is likely due both to cyclists’ political leanings and their multi-modal use of the transportation system.

Sharp partisan divide remains, with Democrats more optimistic than Republicans

After a sharp downturn in January, consumer confidence rebounded in the April reading, with the Massachusetts Index of Consumer Sentiment nearing the record high attained in October 2012, according to data released today by The MassINC Polling Group.

The burst of optimism is likely reflective of strong first quarter economic performance in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts economy grew faster in the first quarter than the U.S. economy, according to preliminary reports, which likely partially accounts for the strong reading. More people are now optimistic than pessimistic on each of the 5 component questions of the index. Full results are included in Appendix  of the attached MPG Trend Monitor.

“Bay State residents have shaken off some of their first-quarter jitters, and are once again seeing reasons for optimism,” said Steve Koczela, President of The MassINC Polling Group. “A combination of strong economic performance in the state and fewer negative political headlines at the national level appear to have contributed to renewed positive outlook.”

The strong partisan divide in consumer confidence continues, with Bay State Democrats far more optimistic than Republicans. Overall, Democrats have a net positive outlook on each of the component questions, whereas Republicans have a net negative outlook on four of the five. Independents had a net positive outlook but by a much narrower margin than among Democrats.

Other poll data included in the attached Trend Monitor has been previously released:

1. Overall, 54 percent of respondents think the Commonwealth is heading in the right direction, compared to 32 who think the state is off on the wrong track.
2. Governor Deval Patrick (61 percent favorable / 23 percent unfavorable) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (50/29) both hold net favorable ratings.

About the Poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of approximately 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from April 23-27 2013.  The margin of sampling error is ∓4.4 percent.

A WGBH News poll released today shows that only one out of three Massachusetts residents feel drivers and bicyclists on the region’s roads interact safely. For full poll results, see WGBH.org. The poll was conducted by The MassINC Polling Group April 23-27 among 501 Massachusetts residents.

Residents turned to local media for reliable coverage

In the days after the arrest of the surviving Marathon bombing suspect, Massachusetts residents expressed a strongly positive impression of law enforcement and give their stamp of approve to the overall response to the attack. Ninety-one percent of respondents approved of the decision to lock down parts of the Greater Boston area while the second bombing suspect was at large on Friday, April 19, and 86 percent have a favorable opinion of the Massachusetts State Police.

In the wake of the bombings, the public expressed more concern about public safety than the potential for restrictions on civil liberties. Nearly half (48 percent) said they are more concerned the government will not go far enough to investigate and prevent terrorism while 36 percent were more concerned civil liberties could be infringed. This is the opposite of a recent Washington Post poll, which showed more concern over civil liberties at the national level.

While more (51 percent) thought the government should not place restrictions on the media during a crisis in order to prevent misinformation, a considerable minority (42 percent) favored such restrictions.

“Many are willing to give the government more leeway in future crises, even if it means giving up some civil liberties or temporarily curtailing press freedoms,” said Steve Koczela, President of The MassINC Polling Group.

Television is most frequently used source

Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of respondents followed the Marathon bombings and their aftermath “very closely”, and another 24 percent somewhat closely. Television was the most common source of information, with 72 percent tuning in to local channels “frequently”, followed by national television at 69 percent (see attached tables). Fewer made frequent use of print media outlets, with 20 to 40 percent saying the frequently used the various print publications. On average, residents said they frequently used 4.2 of the 11 information sources listed in the poll.

“Gone are the days of waiting for the evening news, or even tuning into one source of twenty four hour news,” Koczela said. “Residents are flipping channels as events are unfolding, digging for information from various sources on their phones, tablets, and computers to build their understanding of what is occurring.”

Local media is most trusted

Even as residents mined far-flung sources of information, local media sources were seen as most reliable overall. The poll explored which information sources were trusted by those who used each one. Local media sources accounted for 5 of the 6 most trusted information sources, with live police scanner traffic rounding out the top six. The Boston Globe received the highest mark of any media organization, with 47 percent of Globe readers saying they found it “very reliable” during the period and another 39 percent saying “somewhat reliable” (see tables). Local radio (44 percent very reliable), local TV (42 percent), Boston.com (40 percent), and the Boston Herald (40 percent) all edged out the national news outlets included in the poll. While some differences were small, the grouping of the local outlets at the top of the list demonstrates the unique role local media played during this crisis.

Police scanners little used, trusted by those who tune in

Fourteen percent of residents said they frequently tuned into live streaming police scanner traffic, and another 16 percent did so infrequently. Among those who listened in, 49 percent said they found the information “very reliable”. Public and media reliance on the raw, unedited conversations that take place over police scanners has been the subject of some controversy since the bombings.

Other notes

1. Half of registered voters answered correctly that the next election for U.S. Senate was happening “in the next few months”, as opposed to later this year or in another year.
2. Overall, 54 percent of respondents think the Commonwealth is heading in the right direction, compared to 32 who think the state is off on the wrong track.
3. Governor Deval Patrick (61 percent favorable / 23 percent unfavorable) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (50/29) both hold net favorable ratings.

About the Poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of approximately 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from April 23-27 2013.  The margin of sampling error is ∓4.4 percent.

Please tell me if you used each of the following news sources frequently, infrequently, or not at all during the last week to follow news about the bombings and subsequent search for the suspects. First, READ FIRST ITEM. How about READ NEXT?

The next question was asked only to those who said they used a given media source at least infrequently.

And how reliable did you find the information you read or heard from READ FIRST ITEM about these events—very reliable, somewhat reliable, not too reliable, or not at all reliable? How about READ NEXT ITEM?

Table: Among those who used each source, how many found each reliable?

Table: Among the entire population, how many used each source and found each source reliable?

Just 50 percent of registered Massachusetts voters are aware that there is an election for US Senate in the next few months. The other half are divided between those who don’t know when the next election is (22 percent) and those who think it is sometime later (28 percent). Fewer voters are aware of an election coming up than voted in the 2012 Senate Election (67 percent turnout).

Voters under age 30 are less likely to know when the next election is (31 percent) compared to 57 percent of those over 60. Older voters typically turn out in higher numbers in elections where overall turnout is low. Among Republicans, 41 percent are aware of the election, compared to 51 percent each of Democrats and Unenrolled voters.

This lack of awareness is the latest indicator of low voter engagement in this election. Secretary of State William Gavin said in an interview with the Boston Globe that requests for absentee ballots are running at approximately 25 percent of the level observed during the primary for the 2010 Special Election. Our last poll with WBUR in March showed very low name identification and high levels of undecided voters, both indications that voters had not focused on the candidates at that point.

About the Poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of approximately 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from April 23-27 2013.  The margin of sampling error is ∓4.4 percent.

Voters recognize potential benefits of raising revenue; support rises with specifics on spending

Massachusetts voters see the potential benefits of raising additional revenue for transportation improvements and are open to several possible sources of revenue, according to a report on a series of polls and focus groups released today by MassINC and The MassINC Polling Group. Detailing how funds will be spent appears to boost that support, the research finds.

The year-long public opinion research project, which included two statewide polls of 1,500 registered voters, nine focus groups with registered voters, and interviews with transportation experts across the state, also reveals that voters statewide favor investing in both roads and transit rather than one mode over the other. This groundbreaking study represents the most in-depth, comprehensive study of public opinion on transportation in Massachusetts.

Voters are open to several revenue options, and support rises when specifics are given on how the funds would be spent. The research explored support for a variety of transportation-related taxes and fees – the gas tax, tolls, fares, registration fees, and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) fees – as well as a combination of increasing the income tax, cutting the sale tax and closing tax loopholes. Three options (tolls, fares and the income/sales/loopholes combination) received the support of at least half of respondents when used for general transportation improvements (See Figure).

Support for each revenue option increased when respondents were told that funds would be earmarked for either transit or for roadways. With these details, eight combinations of revenues and uses crossed the 50-percent threshold, as shown in the chart. (For full question order and wording, see Appendix B of the attached report or read more at massincpolling.com.)

“Voters say they are open to supporting different revenue ideas,” said Steve Koczela, President of The MassINC Polling Group and one of the authors of the report. “By addressing voters’ interest in specifics and spreading investments between transportation modes, majority support for any of several different revenue options appears within reach.”

There is broad recognition, across regions, of the potential benefits of raising additional funds for transportation. Just over six in ten voters in both polls say they would be willing to pay $50 per person per year for a “sustainable funding stream for the roads network and public transportation systems.” About half were willing to pay $100, and about a third were open to $200 per year. Three of the four strongest arguments for new transportation revenues revolve around jobs: creating new transportation-related construction jobs; connecting workers to jobs through transit; and keeping Massachusetts an attractive state for business.

Voters statewide want to invest in both roads and transit; regional differences are less than expected. A majority (57 percent) overall, and pluralities in every region, favored investing in both roads and transit. This support for transit outside Greater Boston ran contrary to the expectations of many of experts interviewed at the outset of this process.

Assuring voters that funds will be used efficiently and only for transportation helps overcome distrust. Sixty percent of voters favor locking in revenues for transportation, compared to 28 percent who think revenues should not be restricted. About three in four (77 percent) strongly agree that a list of proposed projects should be provided. Seventy-one percent said ensuring projects would be done on time and on budget would make them more likely to support additional revenues.

These views are linked to voters’ skepticism about state government spending. Seventy-one percent blame “waste and mismanagement” for current funding shortfalls, a challenge for leaders preparing to ask for additional revenues. The other main public opinion challenge to raising new funds is a lack of public understanding of the run-down condition of the transportation network, despite the many public and private reports on this issue.  When asked about the overall quality of various components of the transportation system, only between 11 and 22 percent of voters statewide described their condition as “poor” in the September 2012 poll.

The research process was overseen by MassINC and conducted by The MassINC Polling Group. This report was made possible thanks to support from the Barr Foundation. The entire research project was guided by a steering committee made up of a diverse group of leaders from across the many sectors interested in this issue.

“Our goal with this project is to provide state leaders with a deep and meaningful understanding of public opinion as they debate this critical issue,” said Greg Torres, President of MassINC. “Transportation has been a focus of ours for a long time. This is a significant body of work for us that goes far beyond the other public opinion research on this issue that has been done to date.”

About this research: In all, the project included two public opinion polls, nine focus groups and interviews with transportation experts across the state. For additional methodological details, please refer to Appendix A of the attached report or at massincpolling.com. More details and crosstabs from the polls are available at massincpolling.com.

• Expert interviews: In preparation for the focus group and survey phases of this project, MassINC and The MassINC Polling Group conducted several dozen individual discussions and interviews with stakeholders and experts on transportation issues.
• Focus groups: Nine focus groups of 8 to 12 registered voters each were held in Boston, Framingham, Northampton, Springfield, Pittsfield, Salem, Lowell, Hingham, and New Bedford.
• Polls: Two public opinion polls were conducted: one in September of 2012 and one in February of 2013. Each poll included a representative sample of approximately 1,500 registered voters across Massachusetts. The polls were conducted using live telephone interviewers.

About MassINC: MassINC, a nonprofit, independent think tank and publisher of CommonWealth magazine, is committed to using non-partisan research, civic journalism and public forums to stimulate debate and shape public policy. Our mission is to promote a public agenda for the middle class and to help all citizens achieve the American dream.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE. Consumer confidence fell this quarter to the lowest level in over a year, according to poll data released today by The MassINC Polling Group. The Massachusetts Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped about 15 points to 71.2 since October 2012, a reversal of a yearlong trend of steady improvements in consumers’ outlook.

More Bay State residents now say the last year has left them economically worse off (46 percent) than better off (29 percent), a reversal from the relative optimism of the last reading in October 2012. In terms of the business environment, 47 percent say bad times are ahead, compared to 37 percent who see good times. About half (51 percent) believes the nation is headed for tough times over the next five years, a nineteen point jump since last quarter.

“These figures and other national polling suggest people are feeling the pinch of the end of the payroll tax holiday, and elevated anxiety about the national political environment,” said Steve Koczela, President of The MassINC Polling Group. “Some aspects of the picture look a lot like July 2011, when the initial round of debt ceiling negotiations hammered consumer confidence.”

The full report (attached) also explores an end of year spike in online searches in Massachusetts for unemployment related content as evidence of continued consumer uncertainly.

About the Poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of approximately 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from January 16-19, 2013.  The margin of sampling error is ∓4.4.

With signals of his interest is possibly entering the likely special election to replace outgoing Senator John Kerry, Congressman Steve Lynch appears poised to force a Democratic primary. This should please Democratic leaning voters, who say they would prefer a competitive primary. Among those voters who say they would vote in a Democratic primary rather than a Republican primary, 71 percent would prefer to see a contested primary rather than a clear field for Congressman Ed Markey (16 percent). Even among voters who would support Markey in a general election match-up against Scott Brown, 72 percent would prefer a competitive Democratic primary.

Brown leads a generic Democrat in a theoretical general election match-up, 44 percent to 36 percent. When matched up against Markey specifically, Brown leads 53 percent to 31 percent. The poll was conducted prior to news stories about Lynch’s potential entrance into the race, and does not include a head to head match-up between Brown and Lynch.

Over half (55 percent) of Massachusetts registered voters view Scott Brown favorably.

Both Markey (59 percent) and Lynch (66 percent) have broad swaths of voters who did not offer an opinion of the Congressmen.

About the poll: These figures are based on a poll of 435 registered voters conducted by The MassINC Polling Group. These voters were drawn from the quarterly MassPulse poll of 503 Massachusetts residents conducted January 16-19, 2013 via live telephone interviewers. The poll was conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.

Correction: An earlier version of this post stated that Congressman Lynch had announced his intention to enter the race.