The Topline: Boston considers non-citizen voting

Voting is the core of democracy. But who gets to vote has been fraught with political disagreement since America’s earliest days. Recently, a series of decisions from the Supreme Court has loosened enforcement of voting rights in places with sometimes dubious track records. Those rulings, and continued talk of voter fraud from the administration, has opened the way for some states to clamp down on ballot access. Some groups are struggling to secure ballot access or seeing their right to vote trimmed around the edges. Meanwhile, Massachusetts is bucking this trend and looking to expand the franchise. A bill which would automatically register eligible voters is working its way through the legislature.

The City of Boston is going even further, exploring the idea of allowing any legal resident of the city to vote in municipal elections. The City Council held a hearing on the proposal this month, which would extend the vote beyond citizens to permanent residents, visa holders, DACA recipients and those with Temporary Protected Status. Proponents of the measure say legal residents deserve representation since they contribute to the economy, pay taxes, send their children to local schools, and are part of the fabric of the city. Opponents say voting is a right that should only be afforded to those who are full citizens.

Boston would not be the first to take this step. The Boston Globe reports Takoma Park, MD, has had a similar rule in place since 1993. San Francisco implemented a narrower measure, which allows non-citizens with legal status to vote in school board elections.

Expanding the franchise could shift the demographics of the potential electorate. Census data of Boston residents ages 18+ reveals notable demographic differences between citizens and non-citizens. The Census does not tally documented versus undocumented immigrants, so we are using non-citizens as a proxy for this analysis.

Non-citizen residents of Boston would add diversity to voter rolls

  Source: MassINC Polling Group analysis of ACS 2012-2016 5-year data. Boston residents, ages 18+. Accessed via IPUMS USA.

Source: MassINC Polling Group analysis of ACS 2012-2016 5-year data. Boston residents, ages 18+. Accessed via IPUMS USA.

Non-citizens are younger than citizens in Boston - 67 percent are between the age of 18 and 45, compared with 61 percent of citizens. As may be expected, they’re more racially diverse - 34 percent are Hispanic and 24 percent are Asian, compared with 13 percent and 7 percent among citizens, respectively. Only about a fifth are white (18 percent) compared with 56 percent of all citizens in Boston. Non-citizens are also more likely to speak languages other than English. Some 85 percent of non-citizens speak another language, compared with just 27 percent of citizens.

There are even larger gaps when it comes to education. About half of adult non-citizens (52 percent) have a high school degree or less, compared with 31 percent of all citizens in the city. Meanwhile, 43 percent of citizens have a college or advanced degree, compared with 29 percent of non-citizens. There are also gaps in income - the median household income for citizens in Boston is $74,935. For non-citizens, the median figure drops to $52,500.

Of course, not all Boston citizens are registered to vote, and the gaps between registered voters and non-citizens are even wider. Registered voters tend to be older (43 percent are 45 or older, compared with 33 percent of non-citizens) and whiter (57 percent versus 18 percent). Registered voters tend to have higher education and income levels than the population as a whole. Non-citizens, meanwhile, are below average on both statistics.    

Expanding voter access to legal residents would bring complications. Besides the logistical challenges, some immigration advocates warn of unintended consequences. Illegal voting by non-citizen residents is cause for criminal prosecution or deportation. If a legal resident mistakenly votes in a state or federal election, that could jeopardize their chances at citizenship. And such a move would certainly bring controversy, as does everything related to immigration and citizenship these days.

But at a time when many states are pulling back on voting access, Boston's resident voting proposal is an interesting move in the opposite direction. If residents actually take the step to register and vote, the electorate making decisions at the city level would look a little more like the population of the city as a whole.

- by Maeve Duggan and Rich Parr

MPG ICYMI

This week on the Horse Race, Steve and Lauren talked to political consultant Doug Rubin, late of campaigns for Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren, to ask him about his former clients’ plans for 2020. Then Steve looked west for updates on some of the races in the Pioneer Valley from The Springfield Republican’s Shannon Young and our own Western Mass bureau chief Rich Parr.

Last week, Steve and guest host Lizzi Weyant of MAPC talked to George Cronin of Rasky Partners about the three questions left standing on the fall ballot. The Dorchester Reporter’s Jenn Smith analyzed the primary between Mike Capuano and Ayanna Pressley, and Lauren called in from vacation to discuss her coverage of Deval Patrick’s trip to Texas to campaign for Democrats.

This week Governor Baker sent a pilot program for lowering tolls outside of rush hour to reduce congestion back to the legislature with an amendment, all but vetoing the plan. Writing for WBUR before the decision was announced, Steve Koczela and Rich Parr noted that past polling shows twice as many voters supported the idea than opposed it.

THE CROSSTABS

FiveThirtyEight has Donald Trump’s approval rating at 53 percent disapprove, 41 percent approve. Democrats have an 8 point lead in the generic Congressional ballot.

Charlie Baker continues his reign as America’s most popular governor, according to Morning Consult. Nearly seven-in-ten (69 percent) Massachusetts voters approve of the job he’s doing. Morning Consult also finds more than half of voters in MA approve of the job their senators are doing.

National polls by CBS and ABC / The Washington Post both found majority disapproval of Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac finds 51 percent of American voters believe “the Russian government has compromising information about President Trump,” while 35 percent doubt they do.

NBC / WSJ poll finds that support for Roe v. Wade is at an all time high, with 71 percent of American voters believing the decision should stand. Just 23 percent say the Supreme Court should overturn the ruling.

Americans named immigration as the most important problem facing the nation in a recent Gallup poll. The issue was named by 22 percent of respondents, its highest showing since 2006.

Americans hold mixed views on whether or not the Senate should approve Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.

Pew also finds Democrats and Republicans are split when it comes to ICE; 72 percent of Republicans view ICE favorably, while an identical share of Democrats take the opposite view. Meanwhile, the share of Republicans who have a favorable view of the FBI has fallen to 49 percent, a 16-point drop since 2017.

Emerson College shows incumbent Michael Capuano leading Boston City Councilor, Ayanna Pressley 38 percent to 29 percent.  

A new Gallup poll shows 25 percent of Americans support a total ban on smoking, while about 59 percent support a ban of smoking in public places.

Do you live in a political bubble? How far would you have to drive to get out of it? Play around with this interactive from the New York Times to find out. From deep blue Boston, you’d have to drive only 17 minutes, to Revere, to enter a precinct Trump won.

------------WICKED BIG NERD ALERT THIS WEEK HEAH, KID-------------

Not only are the Sox up on the Yankees in the AL East, Boston also beat out New York for the title of strongest regional accent, according to YouGov. Pissah! How do you like them ap...yeah, we’re done.

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