The Topline: A Year in Review
Polling is an act of political resistance. It agglomerates the messy and inconvenient opinions of everyday people, kneads them into a whole, and forces them through the door into the air-conditioned echo chambers of political elites. This is not newly true, it’s just newly apparent.” That’s from a CommonWealth Magazine piece I wrote early this year, arguing why polling is more important now than ever. A few readers called it a polling manifesto. I’ll take it.
The Topline: Changing the gender balance on Beacon Hill
State Sen. Harriette Chandler, a Democrat from Worcester, became the acting president of the Massachusetts Senate this week, the second woman of the last three leaders to hold the gavel. Four of the state's six key constitutional officers are women, and one of our U.S. senators. In the state Legislature, however, Massachusetts is very far from gender balance, and making no progress. Women make up a slim majority of Massachusetts residents, but only a quarter of state legislators.
The Topline: Gomez still weighing Senate run
The Republican primary field to take on US Sen. Elizabeth Warren next year now includes three candidates, but another contender is still eyeing the race. Businessman and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez is meeting with potential advisors to chart a path forward and still closely considering his options, according to a source with direct knowledge of the discussions.
The Topline: When bad things happen to good polls
Pollsters live in a constant state of anxiety that some external event will happen while their poll is in the field that will upset public opinion and render their data obsolete. The classic example from recent history is when Superstorm Sandy hit the Mid-Atlantic just before the 2012 election. That was a double whammy: The event and the government response could have changed public opinion on the race, and many voters in one of the most densely populated areas of the country were displaced or otherwise unable to be asked about it. Those times seem quaint and far off now.
The Topline: Amazon, but for Amazon HQ
With its radically open bidding process for its second headquarters, Amazon is doing to economic development what it did to retail. Amazon, the company that disrupted bookselling and then the selling of most everything else, has thrown economic development agencies for a loop with the bidding to host their second headquarters.
The Topline: We’ve got a podcast!
We’re pleased to announce the launch of “The Horse Race”, a new podcast hosted by MPG President Steve Koczela and Politico’s Lauren Dezenski. As the name suggests, we’ll be focusing on campaigns and elections, particularly here in Massachusetts. We’ll also look at how developments in Washington could impact politics in the Bay State.
The Topline: Massachusetts voters fear their own Harvey.
Houston hadn’t even begun to wring itself out from Hurricane Harvey when Irma, now the most powerful storm on record in the Atlantic, began churning towards the Caribbean. Before Irma finished laying waste to the islands, Hurricane Jose lined up behind on a similar track. While it is not expected to follow Irma to Florida, it appears likely to hit some of the same islands. It's also now a Category 4 storm. Meanwhile, Category 2 Hurricane Katia churns in the gulf right off the coast of Mexico.
Virginia voters divided on blame for Charlottesville violence
Many Virginia voters (47 percent) believe the counter protesters in Charlottesville deserve at least equal blame for the violence at last week’s white nationalist rally. President Donald Trump’s comments on this question set off a wave of condemnation from political and business leaders. But when Trump said "I think there is blame on both sides," nearly half of Virginia voters agree with him.
The Topline: As Tsongas bows out, does the GOP have a shot in the Third?
Massachusetts Congresswoman Niki Tsongas announced yesterday she will not run again for the seat she has held since 2007. Past election results show her seat in the Third Congressional District may be less safe for Democrats than it first appears. Though Tsongas cruised to reelection in her own recent matchups, Charlie Baker won the district by 9 points in his 2014 election, one of several Republicans to fare well there recently. With voters in Tsongas’ district showing they are open to voting Republican, her retirement adds another layer of potential intrigue to the 2018 elections here in Massachusetts.
The Topline: No magic pill on repeal and replace
Let’s just say it. There is no popular replacement for the Affordable Care Act. Republicans in Congress have railed against Obamacare since its passage in 2010, and held frequent votes to repeal it in the intervening years. But after 6 months of unified control of the House, Senate, and White House, one thing is crystal clear. To pass a replacement package, they will need to do a larger version of what Democrats did in 2010: ignore the polls.
The Topline: The Independence of Independents
The ranks of political independents continue to swell in Massachusetts, while the number of Democrats and Republicans remains roughly steady. Younger voters are choosing to remain “unenrolled” when they register to vote, rather than choosing a political party. The result is an increasing tilt toward the “unenrolled,” as they are called here, who now make up 55 percent of the state’s voter rolls.
The Topline: The Trump administration is not poll-driven
Say what you will about the Trump administration -- and with disapproval in the Gallup daily tracker hitting 60 percent last week, people have a lot to say -- but they are not committing that cardinal political “sin” of governing by poll. In fact, they frequently seem fully committed to the opposite: finding the popular route and going the other way.
The Topline: Left turn ahead? Team Baker looks to reshape coalition for re-election bid.
As Charlie Baker accelerates toward his re-election season, he may have just flipped on his left blinker. If the strategy he shared with donors in a recent meeting is any indication, his campaign may be an even more cross-partisan affair than his governing has been. The Boston Globe reports that in a meeting of his finance committee, “the governor said he must draw nearly a third of Democrats and almost 60 percent of independents.”
The Topline: Massachusetts voters ready for major changes to state criminal justice system
During his 1990 campaign, Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld famously declared he would “reintroduce prisoners to the joys of busting rocks”. That tough-on-crime stance was in keeping with the times. But now, Massachusetts voters are the ones ready to break new ground, calling for major shifts in the state’s criminal justice system.
For NHPR - Iowa & New Hampshire: The Co-Dependent Odd Couple That Works for Republicans
Taken together, Iowa and New Hampshire pretty much cover the demographic and political bases, at least for Republican primaries.
The Topline: Solar's future's so bright it's gonna need shades
Plus MPG testifies on transportation, the latest on 2016, and all about John Boehner.
The Topline: New Hampshire Republicans Seek Change They Can Believe In
Why outsiders are the frontrunners in our new New Hampshire GOP primary poll.
The Topline: CNN's Peculiar Debate Dance Continues
After much delay, CNN amended the criteria for who will be included in their Republican primary debate in two weeks. The new criteria still leave questions.
The Topline: Warm Reception Likely for Obama Climate Plan
Plus, the last word (cloud) on Boston 2024; criminal justice reform; GOP primary debate madness.
The Topline, Special Edition: You Killed the Bid
Boston-area voters need look no further than the bathroom mirror for whom to thank or blame for killing Boston 2024.
The Topline: Four things to watch for in the Olympics debate
Which side is punching up, and which is punching down?
The Topline: US Olympics? Yes In Your Back Yard
Americans really want to host the 2024 Olympics. They want it more than they have in the past. They want it more than other countries do. They want it more than almost any country ever has.
WBUR and The MassINC Polling Group Renew Partnership
WBUR, Boston’s NPR news station, and The MassINC Polling Group (MPG) are pleased to announce the renewal of their partnership through June 2016. The WBUR Poll will continue to cover the most pressing political issues of the day, bringing Massachusetts public opinion to the center of the conversation.
The Topline: Baker hits high note with Opioid Task Force
Governor Charlie Baker rolled out the findings and recommendations of his administration's Opioid Addiction Working Group at a press conference on Monday. Recent polls on the issue suggest the administration's approach will find an appreciative public.
The Topline: Would a statewide Olympics really be more popular?
Does the WBUR poll show that Bid 2.0 will pull higher levels of support? Possibly. But there are realities of polling to keep in mind before placing any bets.
The Topline: You Can't Make This Stuff Up
A high-profile case highlights the threat of fabrication in survey research.
Comparing Actual Party Registration, Self-Reported Registration and Self-Identification
MPG's research paper presented at the 2015 AAPOR Conference.
The Topline: The Shifting Catholic Vote
Plus, how we did predicting the outcome of the casino vote in Brockton, and previews of this year's AAPOR Conference (spring break for polling nerds).
From CommonWealth: T report misses mark on absenteeism numbers
MBTA panel sheds little light on key issue
The Topline: On Opioids, Better Data Shows Bigger Problem
Plus, a local polling roundup, what Americans think about gay marriage, and an ode to the Census.
The Topline: T riders open to fare hikes for better service
Plus, our newest Boston 2024 numbers, for WBUR.
MBTA data and reports
This post will serve as a repository for any MBTA-related materials we obtain that appear in the media but are not distributed publicly. It will be updated continuously if new materials are received.
The Topline: Mass. residents "looking for leadership" on global warming
Plus a Groundbreaking Insider Exclusive Special Report on April Fools’ Day opinions, and monkeys.
Residents fear effects of global warming, but lack sense of urgency to address it
Majorities strongly support many policies in response, including investing in public transit.
From CommonWealth: Commuter rail ridership numbers don’t add up
Official data point in every direction
The Topline: Standardized Testing Unease; Boston Still Has a Little Irish in It
Plus Israeli polling fail, bracketology, and FiveThirtyEight celebrates a milestone.